Be prepared to see some selling pressure in the next 3 weeks. Short term view is still bearish, however the long term view is still bullish as the KLCI is still trading above the 200-day Moving Average.
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What If Jeremy Grantham is Right? Jeremy Grantham, president of investment management firm GMO LLC, has been getting a lot of press lately. At the market's top, he warned of an impending bear market. At the bottom in March, he forecast a historic rally. Today, he says the market is 25% overvalued. Should you be worried? Perhaps not. Let's start with Grantham's track record. He's made a couple of good calls lately. But does he get it right all the time? Of course not. No one does. But even if he's right, it wouldn't necessarily be negative. It all depends on your time horizon. Here's why... How Long-Term Investors Can Benefit From A Bear Market If you own stocks on margin, call options, or LEAP options, a market downturn could be devastating. A 50% decline in the value of a fully margined account would erase your equity. Your options could expire worthless. Who benefits from a bear market? The obvious answer is short sellers and put options buyers. But others...
Here are some charts looking at how KLCI perform during the correction phase. Usually I consider a valid correction phase as price violates both trendline and the 20 day MA. Hence from the chart below we see once these 2 lines are violated, the correction phase will last 9 - 47 trading days or 2 - 9 wks depending on how bearish it was. From the findings: 2009 - no major correction as just emerged from major bear trend in 2008 2010 - 2 times 2011 - 2 times 2012 - 3 times 2013 - so far 1 time
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