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Suppose you are going to a movie and as you enter the cinema, you discover that you have lost your movie ticket you’ve just paid RM10 for. Would you spend another RM10 to get a new one? If you are like most people, you would probably think twice because you will feel that you will end up paying RM20 for a movie actually worth RM10! Now let’s construct the scenario differently. You are going to see a movie. On your way to the movie theatre you drop a RM10 note on the bus. You are disappointed, of course, but would this affect your decision to buy the movie ticket? You will probably say to yourself: “Damn it! That’s my luck!” Arriving at the cinema, you will forget about the incident and stand in line to get a movie ticket. In fact, the above research was conducted by some psychologists who discovered that only 46 percent of those who lost a ticket were willing to buy a replacement ticket, whereas 88 percent of those who lost an equivalent amount of cash were willing to buy a ticke

In Professor Kahneman and Tversky’s 1974 paper, they describe anchoring bias as this: “In many situations, people make estimates by starting from an initial value that is adjusted to yield the final answer. The initial value, or starting point, may be suggested by the formulation of the problem, or it may be the result of a partial computation. In either case, adjustments are typically insufficient. That is, different starting points yield different estimates, which are biased toward the initial values. We call this phenomenon anchoring.” An experiment was done to prove this theory. There were two groups of students given the following arithmetical expressions respectively and were to give an estimate within 5 seconds. Group A: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 Group B: 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 Group A made a median estimate of 512, while group B made a median estimate of 2,250. The motivating hypothesis was that students would try to multiply the first few factors o

Happy New Year 2011! Hope this year is another fruitful year for our local stock market! Today I’ll continue with last week’s topic on behavioural finance. Today I’m going to talk about “Representative Bias”. Representative bias refers to the human bias in us that we often stereotype certain things with similar characteristics with similar outcome. For example, whenever we see a beggar, he or she must be poor, that’s our first thought. However, there are cases where some of them live in big houses! Another example, bad drivers – if you see a bad driver, it must be a lady! So all these are stereotyping! When this theory applies to our stock market it becomes like: politically linked stocks but no profits, buy! Because it sure goes up! Datuk so and so’s company – buy! He usually “goreng” his own stocks! Hence we tend to stereotype the stocks with similar nature such as traits like politically linked or owned by some famous VIP, their stocks usually can soar very high, and we neglected ot